Populační dynamika prasete divokého (Sus scrofa) na střední Moravě (Artiodactyla: Suidae) [Population dynamics of the Wild Boar (Sus scrofa) in central Moravia, Czech Republic (Artiodactyla: Suidae)]
Jiří Zbořil, Blažena Hladíková, Emil Tkadlec
During the second half of the 20th century, population size of the wild boar ((Sus scrofa() began to increase dramatically in most European countries. Despite several approaches applied, no attempt has been made to examine long-term data on boar population dynamics using modern statistical techniques. Here we analyse time series of annual catches of boars from 9 hunting areas in the Olomouc region, Czech Republic, covering the period 1964–2005. We found that the dominant feature in the species’ dynamics was a constant population increase by 11.6% each year. There was no slowdown during the last years, the population continuing to increase exponentially over the whole period studied. We could not demonstrate the landscape effect of forest proportions on the trend component. By fitting the large set of autoregressive linear models we revealed that the models with the effects of North Atlantic Oscillation, used as a proxy for winter climatic effects, clearly outperformed the pure autoregressive models. This may indicate that winter climate does have a capacity to influence populations dynamics of the species. However, the NAO effect was not consistent in all areas studied, suggesting that it was either weak or strongly dependent on local conditions.